In 2009 rated the development of new energy vehicles, "Year One." June 30, in the "2009 Automobile Blue Book" Laptop Battery of the conference, the State Council Development Research Center, the former deputy director of the Chen Qingtai, said earlier this year released "revitalization plan to adjust the automotive industry", the new energy vehicles as an important component of the prepared concern. "Planning" requirements, the new energy vehicles in 2011 to form 50 million units capacity, the new energy vehicle sales to total sales of passenger cars accounted for about 5%. This year, the state investment in new energy vehicles and support the efforts of an unprecedented, but in the selection of the technical line, has been inconclusive. Officially implemented on July 1, "new energy automobile manufacturing companies and product Access Management Code" (hereinafter referred to as "Rules"), in the "rules", the public letter to the Ministry of new energy vehicles will be divided into initial stage where the period of development, mature three stages of different technologies. Among them, fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen cars and two motor vehicles were included in the initial stage ether; to lithium-ion battery powered hybrid passenger cars, commercial vehicles and pure electric vehicles, is a developmental period; the use of lead-acid batteries and Ni-MH battery hybrid passenger cars are classified as mature. Initial stage where only Panasonic CGA-S006 battery a small volume products, and only in approved areas and scope of the model run, and the operational status of all products for real-time monitoring; development stage product allows for mass production, but only the approved regional sales use, and at least 20% of the product running in real-time monitoring; mature product and the same as regular automotive products can be sold across the country to use. In other words, December 31, 2010, equipped with lithium battery hybrid and electric vehicles will be limited to the sale and use areas, the use of nickel-metal hydride battery hybrid and electric vehicles can be sold and used across the country.
Industry generally believed that the rule for the first time that the importance of nickel-metal hydride batteries beyond the lithium battery, and has become the development direction of new energy vehicles. Just two months ago, in a letter from the workers organized by the Department of pure electric car industry development forum, Science and Technology Minister Wan Gang said, "Eleventh Five-Year" period, China will step up R & D of new energy vehicles, multi-pronged, breakthroughs. Lithium battery experts, and even Li-Quan Chen Chinese Academy of Engineering, said: "Lithium-electric cars in China in the fierce international competition in a rare historical opportunity, lithium electric cars will bring about an energy revolution and Panasonic CGR-S006 battery the industrial revolution."
Just over two months, the technical route would have taken place in such a large change, lithium batteries and nickel-metal hydride battery choice is based on technical considerations, or vehicle of interest among enterprises game results? After the introduction of access rules, lithium batteries and nickel-metal hydride battery companies will go from here?
Technical line dispute, market-oriented bewildering
In the commonly used three kinds of car batteries, lead acid batteries due to serious environmental pollution has long been out of the mainstream applications; nickel-metal hydride batteries, although the commercialization of the mainstream at present, but the key indicators of laboratory data were lower than lithium batteries, and the basic theory, there is no room for; lithium batteries despite the superior performance, but still can not be guaranteed safety, and the relatively high costs have also hindered its commercial.
Experts predict that the new energy vehicles will be in the "Ni-MH - Lithium-Ion battery - fuel cell" industry-oriented development path. From the development trend and rate, and short-term performance can be realized only nickel-hydrogen batteries, nickel-metal hydride battery technology since the most mature in the next three years, will remain the mainstream of new energy vehicles, followed by nickel-metal hydride battery technology and lithium iron phosphate, hydrogen fuel cell-third of the world, 5-year lithium batteries and will be gradually replaced by fuel cells. Battery giant Panasonic and Sanyo also found that the lithium-ion battery can not be replaced in 2 ~ 3 years, nickel-hydrogen batteries, mainly due to cheaper nickel-hydrogen battery Panasonic SDR-S100 battery safety, has reached large-scale production. Lithium batteries also need to continue to research topics, such as security, so take time commercial.
According to Japan's Fuji economic analysis, the mainstream nickel-metal hydride batteries will be able to continue until 2011, but after 2011, Li-ion battery will gradually erode the market share of the nickel-metal hydride batteries, the agency predicted in 2009 Ni-MH rechargeable battery-vehicle global market scale than the previous year by 23.7% to ¥ 92,000,000,000, but the 2015 Ni-MH rechargeable battery-vehicle market will fall to ¥ 55,000,000,000.
Select lithium batteries, or nickel-metal hydride batteries, worldwide controversy for several years. Whether lithium batteries or Ni-MH batteries, are in a growth stage. In contrast, Ni-MH battery is more mature, security is better than the lithium batteries, but lithium batteries in the energy and build Air Miles also has advantages. Experts say that any one industry, there must be a certain amount of access threshold, and that the Government support will be focused, not fully blossom, but the final choice of new energy vehicles and the technical route, not the government the final say, the final still have to be decided by the market and consumers.
It is reported that 99% of the world battery market Panasonic CGA-S303 battery share of hybrid nickel-hydrogen batteries, but includes the international mainstream, including Toyota, auto companies generally believe that lithium-ion battery will gradually replace the nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium-ion batteries will be the future of hybrid and electric mainstream car line. Japan's Fuji economic analysis, the mainstream nickel-metal hydride batteries will be able to continue until 2011, but after 2011, Li-ion battery will gradually erode the market share of the nickel-metal hydride batteries.
In recent years, Toyota, General Motors, Volkswagen and Nissan and other auto manufacturers have increased power of lithium battery input. Even the nickel-metal hydride batteries "endorsement model," the Toyota Prius is also considering the use of lithium batteries. It is reported that Toyota planned to market this year, next-generation Prius lithium batteries on board, but has yet to be improved because of security reasons, this plan was postponed until after 2011. In addition, GM has announced it is expected to be the first in North America in 2010 to release its first use of a lithium-ion battery
Camcorder Battery hybrid system models, Volkswagen and Nissan have also announced the launch of Li-ion battery development projects.
All along, the Toyota Prius can almost be said to be nickel-metal hydride battery commercial representative, also "nickel-metal hydride batteries to send" technical line of the most powerful proof of this. Public letter to the Secretary for the Ministry of equipment industry, automotive, Deputy Director of SU Huai-shan in the interview with this reporter, said that from a cost and commercial point of view, Ni-MH battery is a more realistic option. Ni-MH battery has entered a mature stage, is currently used in hybrid electric vehicle battery system, the only real validation was commercial, large-scale battery systems, the global mass-produced hybrid car has been used in all Ni-MH battery system. "Select lithium batteries or Ni-MH battery, that is purely because of technical considerations, with which enterprises to adopt does not matter what the technical route, but there is no key support which business problems."
Nickel-hydrogen battery technology, and industry chain to determine their maturity will be a period of time with the coexistence of lithium batteries,Sony NP-FM50 battery lithium iron phosphate cathode material for lithium batteries makes the emergence of performance and cost advantage has been achieved, but the stability of production capacity deficiencies and the lack of inspection of the actual operation continues to be a part of the new energy discourage automobile manufacturers; In contrast, nickel-hydrogen batteries have gone through many years of actual combat, technical and industrial chains are quite perfect, in a short time can be formed on the vehicle's stability and supporting capacity, and therefore can still be a period of time in the new energy vehicles widely applicable.
According to industry estimates, nickel-hydrogen battery market is still expected to get 2-3 years of rapid growth in the next 2-3 years, the "10 City 1000" program, the increasing popularity of hybrid cars and export in overseas markets for nickel and other factors to bring hydrogen-powered battery market demand for strong growth, and when the nickel-metal hydride batteries and lithium batteries are still Nanfenbozhong when the nickel-hydrogen batteries will usher in a short period of rapid growth.
Among them, China has launched a "10 City, 1000" Plan will bring the first batch of nickel-hydrogen battery market demand. It is estimated that in the "10 City, 1000" program, about 3200-4000 vehicles, new energy vehicles (including buses and passenger cars) using Chinese-made nickel-hydrogen batteries, within three years, bringing a total of about 3.5-4.4 million kilowatt-hour nickel-hydrogen battery needs.
Taken together, both domestic and export demand weakened after the 2012 nickel-hydrogen batteries will gradually be replaced by lithium batteries.
The new access rules, companies do?
Relevant industry analysts think that the admissions policy will significantly affect the pace of development of Sony NP-QM70 battery lithium-cell vehicles, and to some extent undermined the car prices on the lithium battery research and development car enthusiasm.
Current domestic business R & D of the hybrid type, such as hybrid Pentium FAW, SAIC Roewe 750 hybrid Chery A5 hybrid and Chang'an Jie Xun hybrid, etc. are based on the nickel-metal hydride battery; while holding high the banner of new energy vehicles BYD uses iron mainly lithium batteries, lithium iron battery powered electric vehicles F3DM dual-mode model is now running in Shenzhen, and Shenzhen in September to the public sale. The industry believes that, "rules" of the introduction of means in the new energy into the swing for the BYD car was "Lenggong." As an iron phosphate as a cathode material of lithium batteries, F3DM before 2011 can only be sold in Shenzhen, and is subject to real-time monitoring, BYD E6 upcoming F6DM and pure electric cars could face the same fate.
In China's automotive battery production enterprises with a production capacity of nickel-hydrogen batteries accounted for the majority of companies, including Chunlan Group, Ke-li Yuan, the torch high-tech, Hunan Shenzhou, Kane shares, etc., which Chunlan Group is the nickel-metal hydride HEV power battery technology, leading market share in a leading position in the torch high-tech and Hunan Shenzhou has possessed a certain amount of technical base and market position.
As for the lithium battery, most domestic manufacturers do not have the ability to mass production, but the relevant production planning has been implemented, it is expected after 2010 be able to mass production.
Experts believe that, technological advances, China's car prices and the related battery business in addition to promoting the industrialization of nickel-metal hydride batteries, more attention should be put some of the long-term, to devote Sony NP-QM51 battery human resources to carry out power lithium battery research and development, and to maintain the fuel cell technical follow-up, in order to occupy a broader new energy car market ready.
Lithium-ion battery in 2-3 years, although difficult to replace the nickel-hydrogen batteries, however, not be overlooked is the future of lithium batteries will replace the nickel-metal hydride batteries into the mainstream of new energy vehicles. From a global point of view, Japan is the current international new energy automobiles and power cell research and application of the most advanced countries, Japan's major automotive and battery businesses have invested in building lithium-ion power battery production line, concentrated in the 2010-2011 production . Fuji economy that the lithium-ion battery will begin in 2011 to gradually replace the nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium-ion battery, as no doubt the future of mainstream technology route.
Today, Japan In addition to the focus shift to lithium batteries, the Japanese cars in the new energy development and use, especially in the fuel cell vehicle development and promotion, much faster than China's domestic expectations. A few years ago Japan's economy, Trade and Industry on the right fuel cell vehicle development and promotion of a timetable, its strategic objectives are: By 2010, the Japanese use of fuel cell vehicles to reach 50000; in 2020 to reach 5 million; 2030 year, to universal access to fuel cell cars.
Lithium iron phosphate battery case of the cold, experts divergent views on
Introduced a new rule, the market an uproar: the voices had the highest lithium battery cars were included in the development stage, not a large-scale Sony NP-FM71 battery promotion of the column. That is, was Mr. Buffett is also optimistic about the market sought-lithium battery electric vehicles lost in the nickel-metal hydride battery hybrid hands! Ni-MH battery and lithium battery, China's new energy vehicles in the future who will lead? Experts in various fields have to express their views.
Investment Advisor in the new energy automotive industry researcher Li Sheng-mao pointed out that at present, new energy vehicles in the lithium battery powered vehicle development prospects of the most promising, but the Ministry of Public letter is not conducive to the development of a standard lithium cell vehicles spread across the country to promote further said that this will probably be tied China's new energy automotive industry as a whole.
The letter was the Department of Public promising nickel-metal hydride battery itself has a certain degree of short-board. China Electrotechnical Society of electric vehicles IPCC Technical Services Center Director Wang Tianshun also said that although China rich in hydrogen storage materials, but the extraction technology is not high, the battery group consistency is poor, there has been no breakthrough in technology issues, but also the cost of nickel-metal hydride batteries has been among the The stubbornly high.
In the last week of the new energy vehicles after the introduction of access rules, China's new energy industry's largest lithium-ion batteries, "Players," BYD said "no comment." But in fact, BYD is committed to the commercialization of electric vehicles has been quietly accelerated the process. According to company executives to informed sources, is expected to sell 30 million from the BYD E6 electric car was declared the national directory, is expected to be available by the end of this year, while the other a dual-mode electric vehicle F3DM also identified nine this year month to start selling to private consumers. "We will be in the country's 13 major cities for sale, and our DM models last year, had entered a letter Sony NP-QM90 battery to the Department of Public car production directory. The current automotive investments are primarily in mainland China, has completed the 800,000 capacity-building."
Around the new access rules, the industry has formed two distinct voices of the debate: the first is a view, represented by Lee Sheng-mao. He pointed out that, according to the new standards, the domestic has been listed BYD dual-mode electric vehicles, belonging to Li-ion battery car, even with mass production, but only at the approved area, sales of products used within the scope, which greatly restricts its products comprehensive promotion. The Chang'an Jie Xun, Chery A5, FAW Pentium, General Grand Hyatt, and most other brands HEV cars are used in nickel-metal hydride batteries, could be sold across the country to use. Obviously, this decision-making in the country's big state-owned automobile enterprises, the Group's tilt. "Lithium-ion powered cars, only the approved area, scope, duration and conditions of sale, and use." The new rules will significantly impact the pace of development of lithium-cell vehicles, and to some extent affect the car prices on lithium battery car research and development initiative, is not conducive to the development of lithium batteries automotive industry. The second expert opinion is that the new access rules shows that countries are more pragmatic attitude towards the decision-making. Deputy Secretary-General of the National Alliance by Choi Dong-tree with that "look at the new access rules, indicating a more pragmatic national policy, in no hurry to aggressive. Until everyone is optimistic about lithium, but in fact, technological breakthroughs before any major development. Lithium-Ion battery is definitely need to break the current across the country are not ripe. while the nickel-metal hydride batteries to promote the time was ripe, the nickel-metal hydride cost, performance can basically meet the needs of hybrid, mixed dynamic products are significantly more mature. "
Guotai Junan Securities alternative energy research expert Wang Zhen of the judge, with the introduction of the new access system, Ni-MH battery industry is expected to speed, but due to limited production capacity is currently related businesses, the production schedule remains to be seen, but such a listed company pre-or have been large, very high valuation on the stock Ni-MH battery business will be cautious.
China Electrotechnical Society of electric vehicles IPCC Technical Services Center Director Wang Tianshun believe that our country 10 years ago, began to study electric car development, but has been constrained by technology. Consistency is the biggest problem. A low-power battery pack can be, but as a hybrid electric vehicle's main energy that must be made of high-power battery pack because as the greater power, the greater the difference.
Industry experts believe that the new energy vehicles, as an emerging field, is becoming the world's auto industry to catch up with China's Sony NP-QM91 battery auto industry a rare technology "leapfrog" opportunity, and therefore the development of China's comparative advantage in the battery line. In fact, this reporter found in the survey, nickel-metal hydride batteries and lithium batteries have their own different strengths in the future is entirely possible to achieve "common prosperity."
Shun Securities analyst, said the future of lithium-ion power batteries and nickel-hydrogen batteries is expected to achieve common prosperity, Toyota hybrid (HEV) in all of the use of nickel-hydrogen batteries, and lithium-ion battery for plug-in hybrids ( PHEV), the two different application areas. In the technical line of choice should not only attach importance to technological advances, but also take into account the success rate of commercialization
In addition to the types of new energy vehicles has been divided, the new access rules for another major significance is the development of the industry threshold, so that the new energy companies have rules in the future.
Access under the new rules, new energy auto companies should be the Development and Reform Commission published vehicle production enterprises and product announcements in the automotive vehicle production enterprises or modification of class commercial production enterprises; new auto companies should be invested in accordance with relevant state regulations first apply for the project approval or filing procedures.
In this regard, auto analyst with CITIC Securities Research Chun-Bo Li, Sony NP-F550 battery said the new into the enterprise, must follow the "Automobile Industry Development Policy" requirement, Development and Reform Commission approved the report, access to the traditional car "Zhunsheng Zheng", so a total investment of no less than 20 billion yuan. In the future of new energy vehicles wishing to enter the ranks of the more difficult.
Guotai Junan alternative energy researcher, Wang Zhen's view, from the previous R & D for new energy vehicles, the production does not require the industry to now set the threshold, which has a definite progress. Enterprises from the vehicle research and development capabilities, quality, consistency of point of view, the threshold of new energy automotive industry has in fact increased. "The access rules of the lead-acid battery products are also included in the mature products, while the current production of lead-acid electric vehicles all over the country small businesses are spread all over, and some of them have received permission from the local government to allow local Sheung. But the scale of of view, these companies not meet the threshold requirements. "
Deputy general manager of Chery Automobile Yuan Tao said last week that "For mature new energy automotive industry, the product reliability and consistency are the most important, but to guarantee this point, there must be a lot of testing, vehicle factories and Parts must go through a long-term cooperation and testing. "Therefore, the rules on public letter to the Department to apply for the new energy automotive products still at an initial stage or stages of technology development period, and after-sales service commitments required to submit this, he said that he recognized .
SAIC and Chang were concerned last week that said he was in favor of the new energy automotive manufacturers and products, entry threshold Sony CCD-TR3 battery "You start with a high." The promulgation of the new access rules for these have been robbed build a new energy vehicles based enterprises, is extremely beneficial. This year, the Beijing base for new energy vehicles, Chongqing, new energy vehicles have been set up base in Beijing, Jian-long investment in heavy industry group the "new energy vehicles key components" project, in April 2009 formally settled in Xiqing District. Wuhan Dongfeng Electric Vehicle Industry Park then also unveiled in June. And then followed by SAIC and its listed companies, Shanghai Automotive (600104) joint venture in Shanghai Dresdner Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Shanghai Dresdner) officially inaugurated operations.
"In fact, the development of electric vehicle technology perspective, SMEs are also on hand to master a lot of leading-edge technology." China Electrotechnical Society of electric vehicles IPCC Technical Services Center Director Wang Tianshun told reporters, but the new access rules of these smaller companies get in the door.
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